Downtown Ricky Brown
July 31, 2024
While it comes as no surprise that Georgia is ranked number one, some of the other picks may rile up the team faithful who think their school deserves to be higher. We'll examine the narrative to see what insights we can gain to shape our bets before the new season's data becomes available.
Teams that faced massive overhauls in their coaching staff, not to mention the player transfer portal, could dilute the relevance of much of the past year's data. That's why I'm starting the 2024 SEC sports betting scenario with a power rankings overview from SEC Mike. His ratings are based on years of expertise in the super conference and what would happen when Team A meets Team B on a neutral field.
First 3 Games: Clemson, TN Tech, Kentucky
There is a gap between Georgia and every other team in the SEC. As long as head coach Kirby Smart is around, the Dawgs will be the top pick for the SEC and the National Championship. Kirby is a recruiting beast and maintains the best roster, from the quarterback to an elite front line. They lacked a running back until they pilfered one from their main rival. So, the biggest concern is that their defense could have been more elite last year like it was in the previous two years. On the positive side, that factor could motivate the defense this season.
Bets: Depending on their season, I'm looking at Ole Miss against them on the Spread in November.
First 3 Games: Furman, Middle Tenn, Wake Forest
This team is getting hype with all the players returning and the transfer portal additions. It's also year two for defensive coordinator Pete Golding. The second year of implementing a system is the year when things start to click. So if Ole Miss can muster any kind of defense to pair with this offense, they are going to cause problems for everybody, including Georgia.
Bets: Depending on how their season goes, I'll be looking to take Ole Miss against Georgia on the Spread in November.
First 3 Games: Murray State, Buffalo, Boston College
Missouri could have the best offense in the SEC and possibly in the country. There shouldn't be much drop in offensive production, even with Cody Schrader moving to the NFL. They're packing Brady Cook (QB), Luther Burden III (WR), and the rest of the weapons in the transfer portal additions they procured for their offensive line and running back positions.
The question mark surrounds new defensive coordinator Corey Batoon, who stepped in to fill the vacated position left by Blake Baker, who split for the LSU job. They'll have to replace a ton of production on the defensive side of the ball. But in this era of college football, winning games doesn't always demand a great defense. The rules favor the offense, the game favors the offense, and Missouri can score 40 to 50 points on anyone.
Bets: A high-scoring offense with questionable defense spells some Over bets if any sports books are asleep at the wheel on their Totals lines.
First 3 Games: Colorado State, Michigan, UTSA
This team possibly has the best offensive line in the entire SEC. Quinn Tucker Ewers (QB) is back for a third year and has some starting experience. As long as he stays healthy, he could be one of the best quarterbacks in the country. Their defense has playmakers as well, and they might have the best defensive coordinator in the whole SEC. The only negatives surrounding Texas are the accusations of overhype and whether coach Steve Sarkisian was a fluke last year.
The Longhorns will be looking to make a splash in their first year in the SEC, so the extra motivation could work in their favor.
Bets: I'm taking Texas over Michigan.
First 3 Games: WKU, South Florida, Wisconsin
They could be inconsistent this season with the GOAT Nick Saban gone and the leadership transition taking place. Alabama faces Wisconsin in Week 3, then a bye week before Georgia. It will be interesting to see how they do in these two games. If they lose both, it's a tough road ahead for a playoff spot.
Bets: I'm taking them against Wisconsin.
First 3 Games: Chattanooga, NC State, Kent State
Because of some crucial differences, Nico Iamaleava (QB) gets more hype than OU's Jackson Arnold. For one thing, Nico has played in the same system under head coach Josh Heupel, one of the country's best quarterback coaches.
Three returning starters to the offensive line are pairing up with the top Tackle in the transfer portal for what could be a great offensive line in the SEC. Tennessee is also elite at running the ball. They were actually better at running the ball last year than passing. The Vols are also in the conversation for having the best defensive line.
Bets: With projections for a solid offense and defense, I'll look at the Vols to beat the Spread early on.
First 3 Games: Temple, Houston, Tulane
The Sooners possibly harness the best receiver core in the SEC or at least in the Top 3. They might also have a Top 3 defense. Furthermore, having four home games in a row can get them started on a roll.
They also come to the SEC with a chip on their shoulder, having to endure all the talk about how Texas is the incoming king. So, Oklahoma has something to prove. Damonic Williams was a highly sought-after defensive lineman in the portal, and Oklahoma persevered to get him.
All the talk about Oklahoma not being ready for the SEC will provide extra motivation. Texas is the team with all the hype, but remember that Oklahoma beat them last year, and the Sooners are a better team this year than they were last year. They need to fill holes in the offensive line, but they've got a fantastic offensive line coach.
Bets: I'll look for situations in which the books might underestimate the Sooners early on and against Texas.
First 3 Games: Notre Dame, McNeese State, Florida
This team is a complete wild card. With the transfer portal changes, coaching changes, a new offensive system, and a banged-up QB, it's hard to tell how it all will play out on the field. They should have a great defense, but can Conner Weigman stay healthy?
Bets: I'm looking at the Aggies to beat Notre Dame.
First 3 Games: USC, Nicholls, South Carolina
There is already a lot of playoff talk about LSU. But with a defense that's still a work in progress, losing a Heisman trophy winner and some elite receivers might cause the Tigers to get off to a slow start. The verdict is still out on Nussmeier at QB, but he has an arm and performed well against Wisconsin in the 2023 ReliaQuest Bowl.
Bets: I'll look at the Over early on, particularly if Nussmeier connects with Kyren Lacy (WR) and their defense doesn't improve as planned.
First 3 Games: Miami, Samford, Texas A&M
They could very well start the season 5-1 or even 6-0 if they can beat Tennessee on the road. It's no small feat, but they have beat Tennessee the majority of times these teams have clashed.
Bets: Nothing yet.
First 3 Games: Southern Miss, South Carolina, Georgia
Transfer additions on both sides of the ball look good, particularly for the defense. They could be one of the better defensive teams in the SEC. However, new quarterback Brock Vandagriff and offensive coordinator Bush Hamdan could also prove more hype than substance and the "Big Blue Wall" on offense has been absent for a few years. But if it clicks, Kentucky could be dangerous.
Bets: I'm skeptical of the offense but believe in the defense. To start the season, I'll look at the Under until the offense proves otherwise.
First 3 Games: Alabama A&M, California, New Mexico
There may be too much hype surrounding quarterback Payton Thorne's return. The Tigers are also excited about their Freshman class, but how big of an impact can they have? It's more likely Auburn will have a challenging season.
Bets: If the public buys into the hype, there might be some worthy fades in the early part of the season.
First 3 Games: AR-Pine Bluff, Oklahoma State, UAB
The return of Bobby Petrino should flip the offense 180 degrees, and Arkansas is returning more receiver production than anyone in the SEC. However, a lot remains to be seen on the offensive line, which must improve from last year to be effective.
Their defensive coordinator is underrated, and if the defense continues on the upward trajectory, they could be a spoiler.
Bets: I'll be looking at some matchups to take them as the underdog. There is a gap in these power rankings below Arkansas, so I'm not considering any bets under this point.
The defense has been inconsistent, and even with the return of LaNorris Sellers, there are many unknowns on the offense.
They blew up the coaching staff, among other things. Hopefully, it's a good plan for the long term, but there are no turnarounds in the immediate future. Move along; there is nothing to see here, folks.
They actually could be worse this season than they were last year.
Beat writers or niche experts like SEC Mike and cousin Shane on That SEC Podcast always provide valuable insights and a macro perspective that can help shape some of the picks early in the season before this seasons data starts pouring in.
Watch the full video below: