Pick Six SEC Football Preview 2024

Pick Six uses a Game Grader formula to judge the strength of a team and how dominant it is statistically. It's easier to compare cross-conference teams with a numerical baseline. So, Game Grader combines yardage per play, yardage differentials, scoring margins, turnovers, etc., into one score. The game gets a grade, and then a season grade is adjusted for opponents throughout the season. In other words, beating a team like Alabama will earn a higher score than beating a team like "Vandy." So, with a basic understanding of how it works, let's look at the Pick Six SEC Football Preview for 2024 based on the recent That SEC Podcast.

#1 Georgia Bulldogs

Cianca refers to Georgia as the 33rd NFL team. They are far and away the best team in the SEC. It's really a machine down there, but what stands out this season is the amount of returning production.

Usually, dynasty-caliber programs (like Georgia, Ohio State, and the Nick Saban Alabama teams) cycle through their players faster than other teams because the number of five-star players leaves for the NFL more quickly. So, they usually need more returning players. This time around, though, Georgia gets a lot of players back.

They finished number one again in the Pick Six formula last year, and Georgia is clearly the best team in the SEC. Moreover, they're right there with Ohio State in the top two nationally. If you examine the Pick Six 2025 consensus mock draft, Georgia has a complete roster with five stars everywhere. It's the best high school talent with the most draftable NFL prospects.

But they have a tough schedule, so going undefeated is not a given. They're playing at Alabama, at Texas, at Ole Miss, and they play Tennessee, Florida, and an improved Clemson team. They're the only team in the SEC that draws four of the top five teams aside from themselves. So, a 12 - 0 season will be difficult, even as good as they are.

It's a brutal schedule, but Georgia has high-quality depth, the best talent, and the deepest roster, and it is the Pick Six choice for the national championship.

Bets: I'll take Georgia over Clemson in the season opener.

#2 Texas Longhorns

Five years ago, Texas only had a chance to rank average or below average in the SEC. Even Arkansas used to blow them out. The Longhorns have always been in the Top 10 in recruiting. However, this season it's not just the flash of defensive backs and receivers this time around. Texas has shifted to recruiting for the trenches to build a solid offensive line.

Texas is the whole package. It's a deep team, and last year was not a fluke. They finished number four in the Pick Six Game Grader and were only a few yards away from making the national title game. They will fit right into a competitive super conference.

They have a challenging non-conference game in week two in Ann Arbor against Michigan, but Pick Six has Michigan at number 12 this season. Texas looks good here because they're catching Michigan early in a transitional season. Only one starter is back on Michigan's offense—their tight end—and only a handful on defense are coming back.

There's the coaching change at the top, a coordinator change on defense, and the drama about the NCAA investigation sparking up again. It's a mess up there. The 110,000 fans packed into Ann Arbor are quiet enough not to intimidate Texas. They've been on bigger stages, and they're catching a young, new Michigan team in transition.

Bets: I'll take Texas at Michigan.

#3 Ole Miss Rebels

Pick Six has Ole Miss at number three in the SEC and five nationally. This is high praise for Ole Miss; they could be the most exciting team in college football.

Lane Kiffin is not only challenging Coca Cola's sugar content, he's also challenging the old model that works for national titles: to be a top-five recruiter over the long haul. The traditional path to a national championship has demanded long-term recruitment from the high school level, developing that talent, and employing effective schemes.

Lane Kiffin Blasts Coke's Sugar Content

With Kiffin, Ole Miss has yet to be a top-five recruiter at the high school level. They're usually 25th to 30th. However, Lane is closing the gap with the portal. In fact, he calls himself the "Portal King" and has backed it up with sequential transfer hauls. While Ole Miss is barely in the top 25 in high school recruiting, they skyrocketed to number one in the country with the transfer portal.

We'll see if Lane can break the mold successfully. Ole Miss is poised for many wins with a deep offense, and the defensive line picked up two all-SEC guys coming in from the portal. Being number three means they could potentially miss the SEC Championship Game, but why get your head kicked in against Georgia or Texas when you don't have to?

#4 Alabama Crimson Tide

When Nick Saban retired, we lost a legend in the sport. However, it was a bit impulsive for some in the national media to write "Bama" off so quickly. Saban is gone, but Alabama still has a talented roster. If you go position by position, there are five stars everywhere.

What coach Kaleb DeBoer did at Washington (and before that as a coordinator) has been great. He always creates excellent offensive play. So he inherits quite the roster with Heisman candidate Jalen Milroe. They lose their top two backs and top three receivers, but the roster is like a conveyor belt of five stars with more emerging. Bama is ranked #4 and likely playoff-bound.

How does Alabama match up with Wisconsin? In a transition season, it's always tough to have a big non-conference game immediately when you're still working out the kinks.

But Wisconsin is barely ranked in the top 40 nationally in the Pick Six. Their new offense is different from the usual Wisconsin. They're trying to spread the ball around more and modernize the offense, but they're a year away from contending for the Big 10 or breaking into the top 10 nationally. So, even on the road, Bama should be favored here, and the game will be a good measuring stick before the big Georgia matchup.

Bets: I'm taking Alabama against Wisconsin.

#5 Tennessee Volunteers

If a couple of bounces go their way, Tennessee could be that fourth team in the SEC that gets into the playoff bracket. Pick Six has them 13th nationally. There's a lot to like with the 5-star arm of Nico Iamaleava coming in. We saw him a little bit in the bowl game against Iowa, and it was an impressive performance as a first-time starter against Iowa's defense.

Three starters are back on the offensive line, and the receivers are back, which often gets overlooked. Furthermore, Tennessee's defensive coordinator, Tim Banks, calls their front seven the best defensive line in the country, and that assessment is not far off. Pick Six has them in the top 10. They have a balanced team, but questions remain about the secondary and the defense.

How about Tennessee in their matchup with the veteran team at NC State? The question for NC State is their quarterback. He's the Sun Belt player of the year, but how does that stack up in the SEC?

Tennessee had many guys who could have gone pro or popped into the portal to go elsewhere, but they're all back. Tennessee's front seven is set to overpower NC State's offensive line and should win this game.

Bets: I'm taking Tennessee to beat NC State.

#6 LSU Tigers

This is a tricky team to project. LSU has not needed the portal much and is bringing many starters back. But what stood out last year was how one-sided they were. LSU was all offense.

They had a Heisman winner, two first-round receivers, and a really dynamic and fun-to-watch offense. But defensively, they couldn't stop anybody. What's good about coach Brian Kelly is that he addressed this inadequacy immediately. LSU coaxed Blake Baker away from Missouri, giving him $2.5 million, the most significant defensive coordinator contract in college football history.

LSU has blue-chippers everywhere on this roster. The defensive line might be in question, but overall, there's a lot to like about LSU. Pick Six has them in the top 15 in the country, but in the super conference, they're only good for sixth.

How do they match up in the opener against USC in Las Vegas? First, LSU hasn't won a season opener since 2019. As for USC, since firing Alex Grinch, the longtime defensive coordinator, they've shifted the defensive staff around and brought in three big names to coach that side of the ball.

They've packed the staff and recruited well, but there's a little mystery with USC. It's a difficult team to gauge. If the last couple of years are any indicator, they've struggled in the trenches. LSU's powerful offensive line will be able to control that side of the game.

Bets: I'm betting on LSU to beat USC.

#7 Texas A&M Aggies

Three interchangeable teams on Pick Six rankings-wise are Texas A&M, Missouri, and Oklahoma.

Some of the things that stand out are schedule boosts and schedule draws. A&M and Missouri get great schedule draws, with A&M only facing three of the top eight teams.

Coach Mike Elko is a proven program builder. He did it at Duke with a lot less talent, and he should stabilize the Aggies' program. They recruit well, and despite losing some transfers, they still have blue chips everywhere.

The key is for QB Conner Weigman to stay healthy. When he's on, he's on, but he's had an injury-riddled career. Elko will get the defensive line up to standard, and there's a lot to like with A&M.

They have a considerable opener against Notre Dame, which is projected to be number six this season. Pick Six also has Notre Dame making the playoffs. This opener might be the most challenging game all year for Notre Dame going into Kyle Field.

Usually, this is a win for Notre Dame, but they were already a bit thin on the offensive line, specifically at Tackle, because they sent both their starting Tackles to the pros. With the recent critical injury to their rising star at left Tackle, who was just sidelined for the season with a torn ACL, they're down even further on the offensive line.

And that pairs up against A&M's strength—their defensive line. We've heard about the five stars they've recruited and stockpiled on that line. So, it's a favorable positional matchup for A&M.

Bets: I'll bet Texas A&M to beat Notre Dame at home.

#8 Missouri Tigers

Here is a team that's catching a lot of hype heading into the 2024 season despite losing eight starters on defense and their defensive coordinator, Blake Baker, to LSU. Speaking of, Missouri may become this year's LSU with a high-flying offense that can't stop anybody on defense.

The overall receiver room is packed with four and five-star guys. Mookie Cooper and Theo Wease were both former five stars. They're back. Pick Six has Missouri as the number four receiver room in the country, so they will be fun to watch. They'll have to win shootouts in many high-scoring games, but they have a favorable schedule.

#9 Oklahoma Sooners

Pick Six has Oklahoma ninth in the SEC, which is 16th nationally. The Sooners' defense was a Top 10 unit last year, and they're bringing almost everybody back. About ten starters are returning on defense, with some big transfers sprinkled in the secondary, making for a nasty defensive line.

The looming question is their offense—specifically, their front line and quarterback. All five starters on the offensive line are gone, and they've been transitioning a quarterback since Dillon Gabriel left for Oregon. Now, they have a young five-star Jackson Arnold, who should be fine but remains a bit of a question.

Oklahoma has a solid team, but it's facing a brutal schedule. It draws Tennessee, plays Texas in Dallas, Ole Miss in Oxford, Bama at home, and then goes on road trips to Missouri, LSU, and Auburn.

This is the welcome gift they get to the SEC—six of the top eight in the conference, which are also top 15 teams nationally. So they have a really tough schedule draw.

Oklahoma could be a better team than last year, but its win-loss record won't likely reflect that. Oklahoma is improving in the intermediate to long term, and it will transition okay. It will always be a sneaky good team.

#10 Kentucky Wildcats

Kentucky, Florida, and Auburn are the trio of teams for the next tier. The Wildcats bring back a ton on the defensive side of football. When they're at their best, Kentucky's formula has been to acquire a big offensive line, a good run game, and a tough front seven. This year, Mark Stoops has all those components.

They landed a couple of guys on the Pick Six All-SEC Defense and an all-transfer team selection, with Dumas-Johnson coming in from Georgia. So they hit the portal well. The big question is going to be QB Brock Vandagriff. Can he live up to his five-star billing? There have been mixed reviews from Spring and the off-season, so we'll see if he can unlock that talent.

Kentucky also has a decent schedule draw. They own the state with five straight over Louisville, and that's a point of pride for Kentucky fans. They are both ranked similarly around 30th nationally in Pick Six. What's best about Louisville is their defense, which you wouldn't expect from Jeff Brohm because he's about offense. But Kentucky has their number and should continue their winning streak with the home game this year.

Bets: I'm picking Kentucky over Louisville.

#11 Auburn Tigers

Hugh Freeze and company made some gains with this program-changing recruiting haul, which brought four blue-chip receivers. Two of them (Cam Coleman and Perry Thompson) are in-state guys and five-stars. Their quartet of receivers could be a program changer. Auburn was close last year but heading in the right direction. The SEC is just a really tough conference.

#12 Florida Gators

An attractive Prop bet offered coach Billy Napier as the most likely to be fired midseason at 4 to 1 odds. Unfortunately, it will be another year of struggling for the Gators with a tough SEC draw—six of the top seven. But it gets worse because, in the non-conference, they face three instate teams: Miami, Florida State, and UCF. All three are ranked in the top 25 nationally in the Pick Six Review.

It's a ridiculous schedule. Even with significant improvements, they'll likely go 6 - 6, which will not cut it in Gainesville. For Florida to reach its peak performance, it needs to be a top-five annual recruiter, given its location, history, and tradition. It's gotta be a top-five recruiting program, and Napier has not done that. So, this could be his last year.

Bets: Prop bet that coach Napier gets fired this season (if I can find it).

#13 South Carolina Gamecocks

Once again, it's a brutal conference, and the Gamecocks are behind in recruiting and transfers. They're not backfilled enough at quarterback after losing Spencer Rattler to the NFL, and there aren't enough positive angles to elevate them off this lower ranking.

#14 Arkansas Razorbacks

The Razorbacks are in transition mode again. They needed a big jolt of energy to spark a revival and got it initially with Bobby Petrino's arrival. He can build a great offense, but they don't have the roster talent or the firepower to break out quickly. The Petrino hire will give them a spark to help them gain momentum, but it won't happen immediately.

Mississippi State and Vanderbilt are rounding out the 15th and 16th positions in the Pick Six SEC Preview.

The Pick Six College Football Preview 2024 digital version is only about $20 and well worth the investment if you want to dig deep into the analytics of all the college football teams and conferences. Get it here.

Watch the entire interview with Brett Cianca on That SEC Podcast below: