3 Steps to Betting Player Props

Prop bets are markets where you can wager on different aspects of a game beyond the standard bets (Moneylines, Spreads, Totals). If you think prop bets are for you, check out this simple three-step process.


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July 27, 2024

Proposition bets, or prop bets focus on other parts of a match beyond winning or losing, like team or player performances and external occurrences that don't necessarily relate to winning or losing. These kinds of bets may be for you if you're looking for less efficient markets than the standard bets.

You can find some nice edges betting Props. However, top-down betting strategies don't bode well here. That's because, with a top-down approach, you need to use lines from sharper books as your source of truth and base your lines on theirs. With player Props, you need to find trusted projections as your source of truth. Player projections give a complete picture of a player's expected output for a game.

It may be too intimidating or time consuming for the average bettor to create their own projections, so they can use Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) sites that project statistics for players. One example is FanDuel Research (formerly NumberFire), where bettors can find projections for particular players.

One challenge to be aware of, though, is that DFS research uses mean averages for its projections, whereas the sportsbooks use the median. When tracking statistics like baseball strikeouts, for example, you'll find they don't have a normal distribution; rather, they have a right-skewed (or a positive-skewed distribution).

mean vs median average

In such cases, the mean average will be higher than the median, and this matters when betting props. If you follow these mean projections, you will bet more overs since they will skew higher than the median that sportsbooks use for their line. You'd be on the wrong side of the bet as you'd win less frequently than if you had used the median.

Thus, it makes sense to run prop simulators like Unabated offers to find your edges. The process of using Unabated Player Props is similar to top-down betting and takes place in three easy steps:

  1. Identify your source of truth (find a projection set you believe is sharp).
  2. Load that projection set into the Unabated prop odds screen and simulate player performance to identify edges.
  3. Line shop for the best price.

Remember, sports books want dummkopfs, not sharps, and they won't let you beat them for long by playing only props, so you'll need to employ other betting strategies as well to avoid being limited.

Watch the full video at Unabated: