Downtown Ricky Brown
July 14, 2024
Some of the most famous card counters, like Ed Thorp, who created card counting, decided to move on to more significant challenges like conquering the financial markets. Jeff Ma on the Unabated podcast is a former member of the famous MIT card counting team depicted in the movie 21. He no longer plays but still recounts his time with the MIT counters.
Successful card counters sometimes decide to move on to conquer more excellent systems.
Playing with an edge doesn't mean every table you play at functions like an ATM. Bad luck and losing streaks (negative variance) are part of the game and some people get tired of the swings.
Even proven systems like Blackjack Apprenticeship return 55% winning sessions. That means you'll have to endure 45% losing sessions. Periods of negative variance can sucker-punch you at any time, so perseverance and fortitude are necessary to achieve long-term profitability.
You need a thick skin to count cards because you will get backed off sooner or later. Getting backed off means getting kicked out of the casino. After all, they didn't get rich losing money, and card counters cut into their bottom line.
So once the house identifies you as an advantage player (AP), you'll get backed off. Counting cards is not illegal. However, casinos can refuse service to anyone they choose. Some players can count perfectly, but when the heat comes, they melt like an ice cube in Palm Desert. Those who have trouble being scrutinized or disliked will find getting backed off unpleasant.
People who can't manage their bankroll will not succeed at counting cards. Fear and greed play a role here. Greedy players will overbet, and overconfidence breeds recklessness. On the other hand, counters with a scarcity mindset playing on fear mode won't bet the necessary amounts to succeed.
Others may be underfunded, so they won't be able to withstand periods of negative variance. Any of the above scenarios can prematurely send players packing.
Another reason players fail at Blackjack is because they're unprepared. They watch some videos, practice counting cards at their kitchen table, and predictably hand their cash to the casino in copious amounts.
According to Blackjack Apprenticeship, to be successful at counting cards in a casino, you have to be PERFECT at:
If you can't perform all the above perfectly, you will join the ranks of the others who quit counting cards.